Lebende und tote Zeitgenossen

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[Hubbert] saw nuclear power as the long-term replacement for oil..."

[color=nicht erlaubt]That was true in the 1950's but Dr. Hubbert's views changed dramatically in later years.[/color] I called attention to this before the book was published, but it was too late to make changes.

During a series of interviews conducted by Dr. Ronald Doel early in 1989, shortly before his death, Hubbert clarified his views on the nuclear option:
Doel: "Has your thinking about the problems of nuclear disposal changed since your first exposure to those issues back in the 1950's?"

Hubbert: "Not significantly. The problem is here, and it appears more intractable now than it did then. And the thing that finally influenced my attitude there for 10 years or so was if this problem is manageable, with the technology existing, using low grade sources of uranium, we had not infinite supplies but very large supplies of energy. Further, if we could go to fusion, and could utilize deuterium from the ocean, which could be extracted at small energy cost, as compared with its energy content, why, then you'd be at an almost astronomical level of energy resources. Well, what's subsequently happened, with regard to fission, and that is the irresponsibility of the AEC, of penny pinching financially, nuclear power without the backup of what would have to be done. That performance is still going on, essentially unaltered, and it drew me to the conclusion that that isn't the answer to our energy problems, and the sooner we get rid of it the better off we're going to be. I would never recommend shutting all the plants down tomorrow, but certainly phasing them out. See, we haven't faced up to the big problem: what are we going to do with these radioactive plants when we have to dismantle them? We haven't had that yet.

So, that was when I took another look at solar energy, and I came to the conclusion ... it was a change of conclusion. Before, I thought that solar energy, although large, was so diffusive that it was impractical.

"I changed my mind on that. With solar cells, existing solar cells but with improvements, and utilizing what I call the chemical route of collecting in solar cells where there's good solar energy, storing it chemically, utilizing flat planes or tankers, liquids or gases, for delivery. That is entirely practical for producing all the industrial energy that we have any use for, with the very small fraction of available areas for collection.

Jemand wie Hubbert "dachte in Öl" was wenig verwunderlich ist bei seinem Hintergrund. So verwundert es kaum, das er Solare Energie - EE - und synthetisches "Öl" bzw. Gase als Ersatz für fossile Energieträger sah, deren maximale Förderung - "Peak Oil" er nicht nur voraussah, sondern durch wissenschaftliche Berechnungen vorausberechnen konnte. Wohl wenig verwunderlich, hätte Hubbert "PtG" in seinen heutigen Variationen bereits gekannt, wäre sein Rat wohl exaktin diese Richtung gegangen

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Quelle

[highlight=nicht erlaubt]For the entire globe, oil discovery peaked in the mid-1960’s.[/highlight]

Approximately 80% of current production comes from fields discovered[highlight=nicht erlaubt]before 1973[/highlight] and large discoveries are becoming increasingly rare, despite great advances in exploration and extraction technology, and better understanding of the geological conditions for oil formation and entrapment.

Many analysts believe that ~90% of the world’s conventional oil resource has already been found - no more big elephants are believed to exist! This is reflected by declining exploration activity world-wide, a lack of investment in new refinery facilities, and a recent series of mergers between the major companies (e.g. Exxon-Mobil, Chevron-Texaco, BP-Amoco, Phillips-Conoco). Oil production outside the Middle East is estimated to have peaked in 1997 and is now in terminal decline. The Gulf States alone have the capacity to meet global demand which continues to rise at ~2% per year. Saudi Arabia holds about 25% of remaining global reserves and Iraq about 11%. Iraq has the greatest recognised potential for further exploration and increased production. Also notable is the growing demand for Middle East oil from oil-poor Asia (China, India, Japan, Korea) which seems set to become the dominant consuming region by 2010.

Put simply, across the Earth, we are currently burning more than [highlight=nicht erlaubt]4 barrels of oil for every new barrel discovered[/highlight] while demand continues to rise.

Independent analysts estimate that we have produced nearly 50% of the total global resource of recoverable conventional oil. The global ‘Hubbert Peak’ for conventional oil production is predicted to occur in 2005±5 years, with the peak in gas production following shortly afterwards. Beyond the global peak, oil price will escalate steeply as demand exceeds supply with the Gulf States no longer able to meet the increasing shortfall throughout the rest of the world. Competition for a dwindling oil supply will become increasingly fierce. The world resource of conventional oil, accumulated over several hundred million years of geological time, will effectively be dissipated only 200 years after the first oil wells were drilled in the mid 19th century.

What alternatives exist? There are very substantial reserves of non-conventional oil (tar sands, oil shale, etc.), but extraction will be energy intensive, expensive, slow, and very environmentally unfriendly! Renewable energy sources (hydro, solar, wind, geothermal) along with coal and nuclear power may substitute for oil-gas in electricity and heat generation, but NO known substitutes for long-distance travel and transportation can supplant the oil infrastructure over a short time-frame. Hydrogen-powered fuel cells are being looked at as a clean energy source for short-haul transport, but generation of hydrogen is itself energy intensive. Because of its reliance on cheap long-haul transportation, global trade at its present level seems unsustainable beyond peak oil.

Massive disruption to the global economy seems likely by 2010-2015.

"likely" = wahrscheinlich - daran werden die momentan niedrigen Ölpreise nichts ändern. Die zu erwartenden Probleme werden mit einer Verzögerung eintreten. Im Gegenteil, die "erfreulich" niedrigen Ölpreise lösen wenigstens zwei Probleme aus. Alles was teurer als der gegenwärtige Förderpreis ist, wird unter Druck geraden. Je länger diese Periode dauert, desto mehr Unternehmen die auf "andere" fossile Öl und Gasvorkommen spekulieren und sehr teuer produzieren, werden kollabieren.

EE - stets als zu "teuer" dargestellt, werden ebenfalls unter Druck geraden. Allerdings sind monetäre Kosten keinesfalls das Problem. "Geld" insbesonders "Fiatgeld" lässt sich nahezu problemlos vermehren. Das dessen Wert dabei kontinuierlich verringert wird, scheint keinem so recht aufzufallen. Fossile Energie wird wie jede Energie lediglich "gewandelt" - jedenfalls so lange, wie noch ausreichend Vorräte vorhanden sind. Wer aus dem "Topf" vier Löffel entnimmt und jeweils nur einen "Löffel" nachfüllt, muss nicht verwundert sein, wenn der "Topf" eines nicht so fernen Tages leer sein wird.

Wer genau hinhört, vernimmt bei manchen "Töpfen" bereits das Auskratzen der schäbigen Reste .....